Leinster unlikely to find any calm before the storm in Connacht

With Storm Ashley brewing in the Atlantic an orange weather warning has been issued for Galway and Mayo on Sunday, and this is unlikely to be the calm beforehand. As regular season games go for the other three provinces, there’s none bigger than the visit of Leinster, and that’s certainly true in the wild, wild west.
Even though one side of the ground is a shell signalling Connacht’s ambition, the Dexcom Stadium should not lack atmosphere or a sense of occasion. It rarely does, and additional terracing at the College Road and Bohermore Road ends of the ground means that whereas the capacity at Connacht’s previous home game against the Sharks was restricted to 4,217, this means the Leinster game is a 6,117 sell-out.
The pity is that a minor ankle injury has ruled out Mack Hansen – a player for the occasion – but otherwise Pete Wilkins has treated Leinster with due respect. David Hawkshaw comes into the midfield, and Piers O’Conor, Santiago Cordero and Shayne Bolton shift positions in a reconfigured back three.
The only other change to the starting line-up from last week’s 32-27 loss to Ulster has Darragh Murray recalled after his Emerging Ireland exploits, as are Jack Aungier, Sean Jansen and the uncapped Hugh Gavin to the bench.
The venerable trio of 200-cappers – Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan and Finlay Bealham – are unchanged for the fourth game running, while the ever-present new scrumhalf Ben Murphy is partnered by Josh Ioane for a fourth time.
For his part Leo Cullen has named two uncapped players in the match day 23, namely the academy duo of hooker Stephen Smyth and centre Hugh Cooney, two others recently returned from that South African tour.
In all there are seven changes to the starting XV from last Saturday’s win over Munster in front of a United Rugby Championship (URC) record 80,468 crowd at Croke Park. Jack Boyle, academy hooker Gus McCarthy and new signing Rabah Slimani, making his first start, form a new frontrow, while James Ryan assumes the captaincy, again partnered by RG Snyman. Max Deegan, Will Connors and James Culhane form a new backrow, while academy winger Andrew Osborne is the only change in the back line and thus starts alongside his brother Jamie, as he did on his debut last March.
Ciarán Frawley retains his place at 10 for the third game in a row and is again partnered by Jamison Gibson-Park. Scrumhalf Fintan Gunne is a fifth academy player in their match day squad.
These changes plus the loud home support perhaps make it less likely that Leinster will score three tries in the opening quarter for the third game in a row as a prelude to wrapping up four bonus point wins out of four.
But the Dexcom crowd can be roused or becalmed by unfolding events, particularly against the team they like to beat the most but often struggle to do so – witness 34 defeats in 44 previous URC meetings. Indeed, Leinster have won on their last six URC visits here (as well as one in the Champions Cup) with Connacht only securing one bonus point in that time.
Perhaps this partly explains why the bookies make Leinster seven-point favourites but certainly Connacht are acutely aware of their need to start strongly and bring their supporters into the game.
Accumulating four bonus points is not a bad return from away derby defeats by Munster and Ulster, but by the same token it’s hard to credit Connacht who have lost both despite scoring nine tries and 60 points.
Their defence was much better in many ways last weekend in Belfast, with a 91 per cent tackle success rate, but the problem was they conceded four maul tries. The eight scrum penalties against them may have been harsh and down to interpretation, but they can ill-afford to grant Leinster such access given their variety from set plays inside the opposition 22. Then again it’s a new Leinster front-row.
Wilkins doesn’t believe this is a must-win game and rightly so. But he accepts that it is something of a litmus test of their performance levels.
Connacht: Piers O’Conor, Shayne Bolton, David Hawkshaw, Bundee Aki, Santiago Cordero, Josh Ioane, Ben Murphy, Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, Darragh Murray, Cian Prendergast (capt), Sean O’Brien, Paul Boyle. Replacements: Dylan Tierney-Martin, Peter Dooley, Jack Aungier, Niall Murray, Sean Jansen, Caolin Blade, Cathal Forde, Hugh Gavin.
Leinster: Hugo Keenan, Liam Turner, Garry Ringrose, Jamie Osborne, Andrew Osborne, Ciarán Frawley, Jamison Gibson-Park, Jack Boyle, Gus McCarthy, Rabah Slimani, RG Snyman, James Ryan (CAPT), Max Deegan, Will Connors, James Culhane. Replacements: Stephen Smyth, Andrew Porter, Thomas Clarkson, Brian Deeny, Scott Penny, Fintan Gunne, Ross Byrne, Hugh Cooney.
Referee: Eoghan Cross (IRFU, 19th league game).
Forecast: Leinster to win.